Today President Biden gave a speech on Ukraine. He called Russia’s recognition of two
separatist republics a part of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, despite the
fact that both these republics had requested recognition from Russia. He
declared sanctions and additional defensive moves and support for Ukraine,
authorizing U.S. forces and equipment already stationed in Europe to strengthen
Baltic allies. He declared he wanted to
send an “unmistakable” message, one which included the promise to defend NATO
territory. (We should note that Ukraine
is not part of NATO, nor is it NATO territory).
He also declared this would result in yet higher gas prices. The conference began over an hour late, lasted
only about 10 minutes and the President took no questions.
The passage below is translated from Russian news source Известия.
Earlier in the day,
Biden signed a decree imposing sanctions on Donbas after Russia recognized the
independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DNR and LNR). In
addition to restrictions on investments in the regions, the American leader also
banned the import of any technologies, services and goods from the Donbass
republics into the United States. Also, persons who are involved in various
activities in the DPR and LPR may be subject to sanctions, follows from the
document.
In turn, in Donetsk
, they reacted with sarcasm to the US statement on sanctions against the DPR.
Vladislav Berdichevsky, a deputy of the People's Council of the Republic, joked
that in this way the American president recognized the existence of the
republic.
The second paragraph makes a logical point: by sanctioning the new republics recognized
by Russia but which we assert are still part of Ukraine, we are recognizing
those areas as holding some form of independence. This amusing irony reflects something far
less amusing: that the President’s foreign policy is going blindly forward with
what he wants but with no understanding of what he is doing or of the
underlying history and people of the region.
While one view is certainly that Russia is setting up
justifications for taking over Ukraine, the way to stop this is not just to
accuse Russia but to understand not only what its goal may be, but why. That requires some grasp of the Russian mind
and Russian history.
Key Ukraine/Russia historical facts
Ukraine and Russia have a shared history for over 1,000
years. Kiev, now the capitol of Ukraine, was the
center of Kyivan Rus, the first Slavic state and the birthplace of both Ukraine
and Russia. Over the centuries, Ukraine
was often fought over by competing powers.
After the communist revolution of 1917, Ukraine was, after a brutal
battle, absorbed into the Soviet Union in 1922.
When the Soviet Union fell in 1991, Ukraine became an
independent nation; however, the country has not been united. Eastern Ukraine came under Russian rule much
earlier than western Ukraine. Thus,
people in the east have stronger ties to Russia and have been more likely to
support Russia and Russian-leaning leaders. “The sense of Ukrainian nationalism is not as
deep in the east as it is in west,” says former ambassador to Ukraine Steven
Pifer.
The transition to democracy and capitalism was painful and
chaotic, and many Ukrainians, especially in the east, longed for the relative
stability of earlier eras and a return to Russian rule. According to Ukraine expert Adrian
Karatnycky, the biggest divide in Ukraine is between “those who view the
Russian imperial and Soviet rule more sympathetically versus those who see them
as a tragedy."
During the 2004 Orange Revolution thousands of Ukrainians
marched to support greater integration with Europe. In 2005 Russian President Vladimir Putin
called the collapse of the Soviet empire “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe
of the century.” It is no secret that he
would like to regain control of Ukraine and that many Russians believe that
Ukraine is rightfully a part of Russia.
Crimea fought for autonomy from Ukraine and ultimately
declared its independence. It was then
invaded, occupied and annexed by Russia in 2014, followed shortly after by a
separatist uprising in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas that resulted in
the declaration of the Russian-backed People’s Republics of Luhansk and
Donetsk. These are the two republics recognized
Monday by the Russian Federation and on which Biden has now imposed sanctions.
|
Donetsk, Lugansk Celebrate Russian Recognition |
The inhabitants of the separatist regions and now republics
celebrated in the streets following their recognition by Russia. Their leaders have agreed to host Russian
troops within their borders, thus enabling Russian forces to move closer to
Ukraine.
Today, Ukrainian, the official language of Ukraine, is the
native language of about two thirds of Ukraine's population. Russian is the
native language of about one third of Ukraine's population. The two languages are closely related.
NATO
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was founded
shortly after WW2 to deter expansion of the then Soviet Union. Since that time it has expanded eastward,
bringing central and eastern European states into its ranks after the USSR
collapsed. Most recently there has been
a push for Ukraine to be allowed to join NATO, a push to which Russia is firmly
opposed at least in part because that would place NATO at Russia’s border. NATO countries agree to support and protect
one another and to support emerging democracies.
Because Ukraine is not currently a NATO member, NATO
nations, including the U.S., have no obligation to protect or defend Ukraine.
Facts & Narratives
Russia views the facts above one way, the US views them
differently. But what we must realize
is that if we are going to successfully be involved in this situation, while we
do not need to agree with the Russian interpretation, we must understand it.
Russia interprets NATO and its push of eastward expansion as
aggression and a threat to Russian sovereignty.
NATO, the West, and Biden assert they are simply supporting Ukraine as
an emerging democracy. Both
interpretations are reasonable.
Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov
asserts that they have a legitimate right to have their troops where they want
on Russian territory or where they have been invited to be. He analogizes to the US bases in numerous European
and other countries and to NATO troops stationed in various regions. Russia calls these a threat while the US and
NATO see them as protective. That the
troops are stationed is fact, but the interpretation of the fact differs and
results in different narratives being fed to each nation's people. Ukraine, meanwhile, appears to accept Russian
intimidation as a tolerable fact of life.
Diplomacy
Culture, geography, and history affect the way people think and approach
life. Russians think differently than
Americans.
True diplomats have the ability to understand the views and
thinking of those with whom they conduct diplomacy. They must be able to assess the facts and
distinguish those from different interpretations of those facts and also understand
how those with different goals will use the same facts to support different
ends.
While neither side will, nor should they, accept the other’s
narrative, they need to be aware of it.
Diplomacy and peace, not unlike a chess game, require each side to
understand the other’s thinking and how it differs from their own, so as to
predict not only what they are likely to do but why – why it is important to
them. For the more important, the more
aggressive they will be about achieving their goals. The areas of less importance are where
negotiation must begin.
Watching events in Ukraine unfold along with our government’s
reactions it seems that this administration is either unwilling or unable to understand
the Russian perspective. I am not
arguing that they should or must agree with that perspective, but it is
imperative that they understand it.
According to Pavel Palazhchenko, the former interpreter to
Gorbachev, the West has too long ignored Russia's security concerns, and hence
failed to understand the mindset or the psychology of Russia. "That does have an effect," he
said. "We are all human beings. Russian leaders are human beings, and so
when they, time and again, raise the NATO enlargement and the process
relentlessly continues, it does cause resentment."
He further stated “But the United States, for its part,
having been caught flat-footed when Russia snatched Crimea in 2014, has made a
strategic decision to try to call Russia out on transgressions before they
happen. Time will tell if that has its intended effect or causes Russia to dig
further in.”
Biden’s dangerous, erratic, and emotional policy
Biden told us today that he has known what Russia was
planning to do every step of the way.
Yet, he has failed to do anything that has in any way stopped what he
claims should have been stopped. So now
he imposes sanctions against the newly recognized republics. Would anyone be surprised if Putin, evaluating
Biden’s ongoing performance, would determine that he has nothing to fear from
the U.S.?
It appears that Biden is going to dig us deeper into Ukraine. Perhaps Biden’s hysteria about the Ukraine
situation is, as I have previously suggested, part of a “wag the dog” strategy
to divert attention from, and provide excuses for, the many disastrous crises,
most of his own making, in this country.
Indeed, in his speech today he made it clear that gas prices would
continue to rise due to the Ukraine situation (not mentioning that he has
destroyed the U.S. energy independence that existed prior to his taking office
and that his own policies are responsible for our current record high inflation).
Perhaps Biden intends to get us into some sort of proxy war
with Russia set in Ukraine (think Korean and Vietnam wars) believing that this
will somehow prove his strength. Biden does
seem to think he has something to prove here.
MSNBC host Andrea Mitchell yesterday said that President Biden believes
that he is going to emerge victorious from the facedown with Russian President
Vladimir Putin and that he has "confidence" and "ego" in
his foreign policy abilities, while adding that Biden feels
"defensive" about criticism of his foreign policy performance.
That is not the context in which one wants to see foreign
policy decisions being made, especially when they can potentially lead to
serious loss to our own country. It is
not the sort of context that encourages listening and understanding. It is a frightening place for our country to
be.
Biden’s hysteria for the past several weeks, daily telling
us the Russian invasion is imminent, became quickly tiresome. When the President of Ukraine repeatedly told
Biden to stop the hysteria, that he is only making matters worse, one has to
wonder why Biden kept it up. He began
looking like the kid on the playground goading the other to make a first move
just so he could hit him. Again, I point
to “wag the dog” strategy.
Personally, I think that while we can lend advice, speak out
against aggression, impose sanctions, even sell weaponry, we have no business
as actual participants in the sense of boots on the ground in this conflict. This is not a NATO obligation. NATO may want Ukraine and Putin may be
opposed to such NATO expansion, but Ukraine currently is not a part of
NATO. And ultimately this is Ukraine’s decision.
We have a crisis on our southern border. Our Canadian neighbor to the north is, in
dictator fashion, stomping out Canadian freedoms. Rather than address the southern border or
speak out against our northern neighbor’s threat to democracy (Canada is a NATO
member and thus loss of their democracy and freedom is a legitimate NATO
concern), Biden is choosing to involve us in a border dispute that is really
better left to Ukraine, Russia, and their European neighbors.
We have our own problems here, and it would be nice if our
President would have the same level of hysterical concern about such things as our
economy, crime, education, etc., as he does for Ukraine’s border. But then, maybe he just wants a war. Let’s just hope he doesn’t get us into WW3.