Biden and Ukraine

Today President Biden gave a speech on Ukraine.  He called Russia’s recognition of two separatist republics a part of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, despite the fact that both these republics had requested recognition from Russia. He declared sanctions and additional defensive moves and support for Ukraine, authorizing U.S. forces and equipment already stationed in Europe to strengthen Baltic allies.  He declared he wanted to send an “unmistakable” message, one which included the promise to defend NATO territory.  (We should note that Ukraine is not part of NATO, nor is it NATO territory).  He also declared this would result in yet higher gas prices.  The conference began over an hour late, lasted only about 10 minutes and the President took no questions.

The passage below is translated from Russian news source Известия.

Earlier in the day, Biden signed a decree imposing sanctions on Donbas after Russia recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DNR and LNR). In addition to restrictions on investments in the regions, the American leader also banned the import of any technologies, services and goods from the Donbass republics into the United States. Also, persons who are involved in various activities in the DPR and LPR may be subject to sanctions, follows from the document.

In turn, in Donetsk , they reacted with sarcasm to the US statement on sanctions against the DPR. Vladislav Berdichevsky, a deputy of the People's Council of the Republic, joked that in this way the American president recognized the existence of the republic.

The second paragraph makes a logical point:  by sanctioning the new republics recognized by Russia but which we assert are still part of Ukraine, we are recognizing those areas as holding some form of independence.  This amusing irony reflects something far less amusing: that the President’s foreign policy is going blindly forward with what he wants but with no understanding of what he is doing or of the underlying history and people of the region.

While one view is certainly that Russia is setting up justifications for taking over Ukraine, the way to stop this is not just to accuse Russia but to understand not only what its goal may be, but why.  That requires some grasp of the Russian mind and Russian history.

Key Ukraine/Russia historical facts

Ukraine and Russia have a shared history for over 1,000 years.   Kiev, now the capitol of Ukraine, was the center of Kyivan Rus, the first Slavic state and the birthplace of both Ukraine and Russia.  Over the centuries, Ukraine was often fought over by competing powers.  After the communist revolution of 1917, Ukraine was, after a brutal battle, absorbed into the Soviet Union in 1922.

When the Soviet Union fell in 1991, Ukraine became an independent nation; however, the country has not been united.  Eastern Ukraine came under Russian rule much earlier than western Ukraine.  Thus, people in the east have stronger ties to Russia and have been more likely to support Russia and Russian-leaning leaders.  “The sense of Ukrainian nationalism is not as deep in the east as it is in west,” says former ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer.

The transition to democracy and capitalism was painful and chaotic, and many Ukrainians, especially in the east, longed for the relative stability of earlier eras and a return to Russian rule.  According to Ukraine expert Adrian Karatnycky, the biggest divide in Ukraine is between “those who view the Russian imperial and Soviet rule more sympathetically versus those who see them as a tragedy."

During the 2004 Orange Revolution thousands of Ukrainians marched to support greater integration with Europe.  In 2005 Russian President Vladimir Putin called the collapse of the Soviet empire “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”  It is no secret that he would like to regain control of Ukraine and that many Russians believe that Ukraine is rightfully a part of Russia.

Crimea fought for autonomy from Ukraine and ultimately declared its independence.  It was then invaded, occupied and annexed by Russia in 2014, followed shortly after by a separatist uprising in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas that resulted in the declaration of the Russian-backed People’s Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk.  These are the two republics recognized Monday by the Russian Federation and on which Biden has now imposed sanctions.

Donetsk, Lugansk Celebrate Russian Recognition

The inhabitants of the separatist regions and now republics celebrated in the streets following their recognition by Russia.  Their leaders have agreed to host Russian troops within their borders, thus enabling Russian forces to move closer to Ukraine.

Today, Ukrainian, the official language of Ukraine, is the native language of about two thirds of Ukraine's population. Russian is the native language of about one third of Ukraine's population.  The two languages are closely related.

NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was founded shortly after WW2 to deter expansion of the then Soviet Union.  Since that time it has expanded eastward, bringing central and eastern European states into its ranks after the USSR collapsed.  Most recently there has been a push for Ukraine to be allowed to join NATO, a push to which Russia is firmly opposed at least in part because that would place NATO at Russia’s border.  NATO countries agree to support and protect one another and to support emerging democracies.

Because Ukraine is not currently a NATO member, NATO nations, including the U.S., have no obligation to protect or defend Ukraine. 

Facts & Narratives

Russia views the facts above one way, the US views them differently.   But what we must realize is that if we are going to successfully be involved in this situation, while we do not need to agree with the Russian interpretation, we must understand it. 

Russia interprets NATO and its push of eastward expansion as aggression and a threat to Russian sovereignty.  NATO, the West, and Biden assert they are simply supporting Ukraine as an emerging democracy.  Both interpretations are reasonable.

Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov asserts that they have a legitimate right to have their troops where they want on Russian territory or where they have been invited to be.  He analogizes to the US bases in numerous European and other countries and to NATO troops stationed in various regions.  Russia calls these a threat while the US and NATO see them as protective.   That the troops are stationed is fact, but the interpretation of the fact differs and results in different narratives being fed to each nation's people.  Ukraine, meanwhile, appears to accept Russian intimidation as a tolerable fact of life.

Diplomacy

Culture, geography, and history affect the way people think and approach life.  Russians think differently than Americans.

True diplomats have the ability to understand the views and thinking of those with whom they conduct diplomacy.  They must be able to assess the facts and distinguish those from different interpretations of those facts and also understand how those with different goals will use the same facts to support different ends.

While neither side will, nor should they, accept the other’s narrative, they need to be aware of it.  Diplomacy and peace, not unlike a chess game, require each side to understand the other’s thinking and how it differs from their own, so as to predict not only what they are likely to do but why – why it is important to them.  For the more important, the more aggressive they will be about achieving their goals.  The areas of less importance are where negotiation must begin.

Watching events in Ukraine unfold along with our government’s reactions it seems that this administration is either unwilling or unable to understand the Russian perspective.   I am not arguing that they should or must agree with that perspective, but it is imperative that they understand it.

According to Pavel Palazhchenko, the former interpreter to Gorbachev, the West has too long ignored Russia's security concerns, and hence failed to understand the mindset or the psychology of Russia.  "That does have an effect," he said. "We are all human beings. Russian leaders are human beings, and so when they, time and again, raise the NATO enlargement and the process relentlessly continues, it does cause resentment." 

He further stated “But the United States, for its part, having been caught flat-footed when Russia snatched Crimea in 2014, has made a strategic decision to try to call Russia out on transgressions before they happen. Time will tell if that has its intended effect or causes Russia to dig further in.”

Biden’s dangerous, erratic, and emotional policy

Biden told us today that he has known what Russia was planning to do every step of the way.  Yet, he has failed to do anything that has in any way stopped what he claims should have been stopped.  So now he imposes sanctions against the newly recognized republics.  Would anyone be surprised if Putin, evaluating Biden’s ongoing performance, would determine that he has nothing to fear from the U.S.?

It appears that Biden is going to dig us deeper into Ukraine.  Perhaps Biden’s hysteria about the Ukraine situation is, as I have previously suggested, part of a “wag the dog” strategy to divert attention from, and provide excuses for, the many disastrous crises, most of his own making, in this country.  Indeed, in his speech today he made it clear that gas prices would continue to rise due to the Ukraine situation (not mentioning that he has destroyed the U.S. energy independence that existed prior to his taking office and  that his own policies are responsible for our current record high inflation).

Perhaps Biden intends to get us into some sort of proxy war with Russia set in Ukraine (think Korean and Vietnam wars) believing that this will somehow prove his strength.  Biden does seem to think he has something to prove here.  MSNBC host Andrea Mitchell yesterday said that President Biden believes that he is going to emerge victorious from the facedown with Russian President Vladimir Putin and that he has "confidence" and "ego" in his foreign policy abilities, while adding that Biden feels "defensive" about criticism of his foreign policy performance.

That is not the context in which one wants to see foreign policy decisions being made, especially when they can potentially lead to serious loss to our own country.  It is not the sort of context that encourages listening and understanding.  It is a frightening place for our country to be. 

Biden’s hysteria for the past several weeks, daily telling us the Russian invasion is imminent, became quickly tiresome.  When the President of Ukraine repeatedly told Biden to stop the hysteria, that he is only making matters worse, one has to wonder why Biden kept it up.  He began looking like the kid on the playground goading the other to make a first move just so he could hit him.  Again, I point to “wag the dog” strategy.

Personally, I think that while we can lend advice, speak out against aggression, impose sanctions, even sell weaponry, we have no business as actual participants in the sense of boots on the ground in this conflict.  This is not a NATO obligation.  NATO may want Ukraine and Putin may be opposed to such NATO expansion, but Ukraine currently is not a part of NATO.   And ultimately this is Ukraine’s decision.

We have a crisis on our southern border.  Our Canadian neighbor to the north is, in dictator fashion, stomping out Canadian freedoms.  Rather than address the southern border or speak out against our northern neighbor’s threat to democracy (Canada is a NATO member and thus loss of their democracy and freedom is a legitimate NATO concern), Biden is choosing to involve us in a border dispute that is really better left to Ukraine, Russia, and their European neighbors. 

We have our own problems here, and it would be nice if our President would have the same level of hysterical concern about such things as our economy, crime, education, etc., as he does for Ukraine’s border.  But then, maybe he just wants a war.  Let’s just hope he doesn’t get us into WW3.